Tuesday, December 30, 2008

UYG Virtual bank



After being beaten up on several fronts, once wonders what to do if the job situation sucks & if the investment environment is messed up. Add to that, the money offered in the bank CDs, which are now supposedly safe upto 250K, is not much. Bank CDs now give anywhere from 2.5 to 4% maximum. Majority of the so called investment analysts & advisors got us nowhere anyways, so let us fire them & take charge of our portfolios.

So how do we generate income. Introducing the UYG virtual bank.

So how about analyzing UYG as if you are putting money in the bank as a CD. Analyze the scenario that if someone takes 100K & invests in UYG & sets up a revolving covered call selling approach.

UYG is an ETF, beaten down, & with the money being pumped into the system & by the government, the lower side potential is marginal, though it may stay flat between 4 to 7 dollars.

Refer to the screen capture for reference, it give a better idea. This is from a spreadsheet that analyses several scenarios.

One can either invest into only one position or a few or all.

The nice thing is that it shows the return based on per month & using other approaches for 3 months versus upto a year. One can choose a strategy that is suitable to make choices based on the average maximum return based on a monthly basis if a strike price is not reached, versus if it is reached.

What is the worst case scenario? Will UYG ETF go to zero ? I hope you respond No! ; Then the worst case scenario is that UYG goes nowhere or goes down. Okay, in that case wait & then invest into selling covered calls at a future date once again. In the meantime, the cost of stocks one invested into went down already (refer to the extreme right side column).

If one invests 100K or so in a bank CD, the money we get here upfront is equivalent of renewing that CD for several additional years.

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Monday, December 22, 2008

UYG and S&P for Dec 23

UYG came down to nearly 5.25 & then bounced back to close at 5.42
For scalpers, it may be worth watching its behavior.
If it pulls back to around 4.9, it is an opportunity for entering.
The trigger can be pulled to offload around 5.6

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SPY showed very strong support at 85.5. It has small support at 88.40
In overnight market, the (ESH9) Emini futures for S&P are moving sideways.
The overall long term trend for S&P has been downwards.
If it moves upwards, then anaylyze the charts that indicate SPY to go till 87.5 or ESH9 till 877.

On the downside, we may see a ride for SPY till 85 or ESH9 till 855

The behavior indicates that will definitely come down to retest the 85.5 (SPY) or 855 (ESH9) in near term.
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